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Media Intelligence - Foreseeing the future through the media

Posted By José M. Diogo, VF Com, Tuesday, February 16, 2016

Media intelligence It is not guessing, it’s more like predicting, but the odds are considerable. Media intelligence is the ability of an individual or an organization to anticipate (or influence) the news. Sometimes before the facts actually happen. 

 

There is this song, worldwide known, composed by the British singer Elton John, called “Your song”. In it, there is has a sentence so simple and obvious that gets to be enigmatic: “It may be quite simple, but now that it’s done”.

We can say that this verse conveys both oddity and wonder. Something that seemed totally obvious but until a certain moment anyone had remembered it. That nobody could perceive.

Like Sir Elton John sung, insights repeatedly seem obvious but seldom they are. Even if it seems like a result of very simple deductions it’s the other way around. It’s an elaborate process that adds multiple factors combined in complex ways.

Welcome to “Media Intelligence”.

Let’s see a real example of how things happen. The analysis elements are two texts. The first one is one my weekly chronicles at the Portuguese daily “Jornal de Notícias”; an opinion text (written by a columnist in a daily newspaper). The second, a news release, signed by journalists at the major local broadsheet newspaper “Expresso”.

On Sunday, December 13th, 2015, I wrote in my column that the current Prime Minister, Mr. António Costa, had all the advantage in the victory of Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in the next presidential elections, to be held the next January 28th.

That day, my article, has called “O apoio de Costa a Marcelo”, Portuguese for “Costa to back Marcelo”. For those who do not know the political ins and outs, this is not an obvious conclusion. Costa is the Socialist prime minister that recently earned power to social democrats and they precisely suport De Sousa. Odd? Not quite.

This thesis, defended in my text (then just opinion) was confirmed this week by the events. “Expresso”, reported the same fact, as news, in the edition of 31st December. It was part of the front page of the newspaper and occupies the entire 8th page of the largest Portuguese weekly journal.

Three weeks later after all that I wrote for the future it became verified in the present. Back to the future?

Is this in simple deduction? Not quite.

To achieve good insights - knowledge resulting from a process using insight, perception, judgment, intelligence, processing speed, or even intuition – it is necessary to deeply know the framework of each situation, the characters who inhabit them, their expected behaviour and the admissible exclusions.

Once founded, we typify all the relevant variables - through careful analysis of the data and the metadata – found in the most various sources of information. These are normally open, in traditional or online support. Only here, we can apply media intelligence models; and then try to “anticipate" the future.

Applying this method in the right way, we’ll find the likely future directions that shape our brand, business, reputation, or personal brand. Get to now things before the others, is always a significant advantage.

Like the song “says”. Seems easy. But it’s not.

 

Tags:  agenda setting  intelligence  media intelligence 

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